Sunday, October 17, 2004

Weekly Review 10/11-10/15

Like the prior week, the System identified very few entry possibilities, and of those virtually all resulted in scratches. The perception of an extended lack of opportunities can make us stretch for results, and falling prey to this impatience is an open invitation to disaster -- this week being a perfect example. As with any System which remains a work in progress, experiencing a dry spell of unprecendented length can slowly eat away at one's belief in the System's ultimate merit; by Friday I had already exectued several trades outside its parameters, and came into that morning with overnight baggage. Having stops secured at breakeven on each of them, I felt confident that I would be able to manage my holdings and still objectively focus on the any forthcoming System signals.

Not! By the end of the day, in addition to missing 2 exceptional setups which would have more than made up for the meager harvest of the last few weeks, I managed to press onto my prior night's holdings out of frustration, which conveniently allowed me to cancel my preset stops for "recalculation". . . need I continue? Let's just say I notched a new high on the vomit bucket for a single day's retchings. Those open profits I carried into the morning not only gave me a false sense of security, the positions behind them provided that fraction-of-a-second hesitation en route to a "statistical catastrophe" (Slansky again), and left me flailing. All in all, a pathetic way to end the week.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would applaud your system for registering few entry opportunities. One might add, this could be a definition of what a good system does. In a sort of “figure-in-the-carpet” metaphor, your system is actually quite active : In helping you avoid the bad trades.

Think of the mom and the two-year old: “Get away from the stairs.” “ Don’t touch the bleach.” “ Don’t stand on that chair.” “ Stay away from the street”. The mom is not depriving the child of opportunities, she is, rather, discovering opportunities to preserve life (capital).

It might be possible to say that a system’s “job” is to be counter-intuitive. What makes money consistently, in the long run, adding incrementally to an equity curve over years, may “feel” nothing like the opportunities we claim to see in front of us day after day.

Manny
manny@mendelsonresearch.com

4:00 PM  

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